Mass. economy grows 1.9 percent, just below U.S. GDP

The growth in Massachusetts real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the third quarter of 2012, 0.1 percentage point below the U.S. real GDP, according to the latest MassBenchmarks Current Economic Index released today.

In the first and second quarters of this year, the state's economy grew at revised annual rates of 2.0 and 3.0 percent, respectively, well below the 4.0 percent rate of growth originally reported for each quarter earlier this year, officials said. In the first two quarters of 2012, the U.S. economy grew at annual rates of 2.0 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively.

The MassBenchmarks Leading Economic Index for September was 2.3 percent, the same as the three-month average for July through September. Yet officials said the state's economy slowed sharply in the third quarter with payroll employment growth slowing to 0.2 percent, and unemployment increasing by half a percentage point to 6.5 percent.

Officials said Massachusetts' weaker performance reflects its higher reliance on Europe as an export destination, as well as stagnant demand for information technology.

"If the state's economy continues to grow at the pace predicted by the leading index, and if productivity growth returns to its trend rate, real Massachusetts gross domestic product is expected to grow at 2.3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of this year and in the first quarter of 2013," said Northeastern University economist Alan Clayton-Matthews. "Given expected productivity growth, this trend is inconsistent with an expectation of virtually no net employment growth in Massachusetts over the next six months."

Officials said that despite the poor recent overall economic performance and the slow outlook for the rest of the year, employment in computer systems, consulting, scientific research and development, software and durable manufacturing have continued to increase.

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