News that a UMass Amherst graduate student had uncovered significant flaws in an influential paper by two eminent Harvard University economists roiled the profession this week, raising questions about the policies it influences at home and abroad.
Thomas Herndon, a 28-year-old doctoral student in economics, discovered what he saw as glaring omissions in the spreadsheets used for Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff's 2010 study, which had asserted that economic growth slows sharply when government debt exceeds 90 percent of annual economic output.
The study was widely cited by policymakers worldwide, including former Republican vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan, to justify cutting spending. So when a working paper by Herndon and two of his professors, Michael Ash and Robert Pollin, pointing out the errors was posted on the UMass Political Economy Research Institute website this week, it quickly went viral.
"It really indicates the profession needs to question its own methods and standards," said Barbara Alexander, an economist and visiting lecturer at Babson College. "Published research needs to be audited and cross-checked, and the data needs to be freely available. ... It's really disturbing because the results in this case have been used to support policies that have been extremely painful for many people in this country and around the world."
In a joint statement, Reinhart and Rogoff said they were "grateful" to Herndon, Ash and Pollin for pointing out a "coding error," but they maintained there is a correlation between high government debt and slow economic growth.
"It is sobering that such an error slipped into one of our papers despite our best efforts to be consistently careful. We will redouble our efforts to avoid such errors in the future," they said. "We do not, however, believe this regrettable slip affects in any significant way the central message of the paper or that in our subsequent work."
Herndon and his professors disagree with that conclusion.
"People argue that spending cuts are a bitter medicine you have to take to get out of a recession," he said, "but we provide strong evidence that disputes that."
Ash, a professor of economics and public policy, said it is "quite likely" that high public debt is not a cause of poor economic performance, but an effect.
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