The U.S. economy likely received a much-needed dose of job growth last month thanks to a strong housing market and consumer spending, yet experts were divided yesterday over how high the tally would be given March's less-than-stellar figures.
Robert Nakosteen, an economics professor at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst's Isenberg School of Management, anticipated 150,000 jobs would be added, citing the 324,000 Americans who sought unemployment aid last week, the nation's lowest figure in five years.
"The problem in the economy is firms have pretty much stopped firing people, but haven't really started hiring them again," Nakosteen said. "At the same time, the economy is inherently healthier with household debt diminishing."
Yet federal budget cuts, increased payroll taxes and slowdowns in Europe and Asia continue to suppress the U.S. economy, which should be adding jobs at a rate of at least 250,000 jobs a month, Nakosteen added.
Preliminary figures released last month show the nation added a paltry 88,000 jobs in March, the country's worst figure since June 2012. While the unemployment rate dropped to 7.6 percent last month, nearly 500,000 people dropped out of the workforce.
The economy grew at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the first three months of the year.
"One bright spot is spending has held up OK and if that strength persists then maybe things won't be that bad," said Ken Kuttner, an economics professor at Williams College. "Given the recovery of the housing market there's some possibility that employment in the housing sector can move that up a little bit. If you're looking for reasons to be optimistic, those are places I'd be looking."
Kuttner added a "good report" would be 150,000 jobs or higher added in April but "we will likely undershoot that and be closer to 100,000."
Northeastern University economist Alan Clayton-Matthews said today's report would likely reflect payroll provider ADP's modest figure of 119,000 jobs added last month.
"It won't be disappointing given the increased payroll tax and the sequestration. In fact, what it would be suggesting is that this burgeoning consumer demand and private sector demand is offsetting the fiscal drag," he said. "Once we take the hit on growth … we'd be poised to grow at a faster rate in the second half of the year."
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